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Coalition formation in Portland’s first STV election

I have a new report with Kevin Kosar and Jaehun Lee, jointly published by the American Enterprise Institute and Manhattan Institute:

Portland, Oregon, first used its new proportional ranked-choice voting electoral system to elect city council members in November 2024.

A variety of groups endorsed candidates in this nonpartisan election.

Analyses of these groups’ endorsements point to the emergence of four political blocs: national progressivism, pro-business pragmatism, local progressivism, and laborism.

It is not yet clear what style of politics will emerge in future elections. Possibilities include local multi-partism, local bi-partism based on coalition parties, and continued fluidity, including within the blocs themselves.

Portland’s urban politics may prove unstable and feature shifting alliances among these groups in the run-up to subsequent elections.

Read more…

On New York City’s unique “top-two” elections proposal

Last week, I wrote an article for City Journal on the proposed “top-two” system of mayoral elections in New York City. Here is how it opens: “As a political scientist, I don’t love the proposal, but it could work—if parties retain control of which candidates use their labels.”

I also spoke with NY1 on Friday afternoon. The bottom line in that conversation was that this proposal is not for an “open primary” as typically understood.

This is a complex issue. As such, it is hard to evaluate separately from what one expects or wants to see in November’s mayoral election.