Skip to content

Author: Santucci

More ‘pure’ independents than we thought?

I have a new paper (open access) with Josh Dyck in Public Opinion Quarterly:

How should we measure “pure” or “true” independents? For years, the respective item required a respondent to volunteer that answer. Recent surveys have moved toward presenting it explicitly. Those that do produce estimates of pure independents that are much larger than in past surveys. We present evidence of this phenomenon across multiple surveys and ask: Are self-administered surveys overcounting independents, or are traditional live-interviewer surveys undercounting independents? We answer that question by comparing live-interview and self-administered samples from the 2012 and 2016 American National Election Studies, by undertaking tests to rule out mode effects (including an experiment), and by seeing which question wording correlates more strongly with measures of latent ideology, vote choice, and ratings of the parties. Our findings suggest that surveys that include an explicit response option, allowing Americans to self-identify easily as “(pure) independent,” offer a more precise measurement of the concept of party identification. This has implications for the study of independents, as well as for discussions about polarization and party-system dealignment.

How to get better thesis statements from students

Giving feedback on student writing is an opportunity to think about teaching. One issue I see often is a weak thesis statement. This usually takes the form of a list of concepts rather than a straightforward answer to the question in a prompt. Students get here by writing body paragraphs in author-by-author fashion, “wrapping” these in listy thesis statements, then thinking the job is done. In short, students are writing body paragraphs to arrive at their theses — all while worrying about meeting some word count. I want to suggest the idea of a “definitions paragraph” as a way to break these habits. I think it can do so by getting students to think about the readings’ main points in an integrative way.

Read more…

Public opinion essay prompt 1, vintage 2025

In his famous essay on belief systems, Converse (1964, 8-10) writes about how involvement in a group can cause attitude constraint. He says this process involves learning two separate things: “what goes with what” and “why.” He then speculates that the second form of learning (why) will happen more slowly than the first. Based on what we’ve read so far, as well as personal experience, do you think he is right about the order in which people (a) bundle issue positions and (b) get ready to explain why those positions should be bundled?

Please give your answer in 3-5 pages, double-spaced. Remember that less can be “more” if circumstances call for it. The rubric I will use is here. I can imagine answers in both directions.

Coalition formation in Portland’s first STV election

I have a new report with Kevin Kosar and Jaehun Lee, jointly published by the American Enterprise Institute and Manhattan Institute:

Portland, Oregon, first used its new proportional ranked-choice voting electoral system to elect city council members in November 2024.

A variety of groups endorsed candidates in this nonpartisan election.

Analyses of these groups’ endorsements point to the emergence of four political blocs: national progressivism, pro-business pragmatism, local progressivism, and laborism.

It is not yet clear what style of politics will emerge in future elections. Possibilities include local multi-partism, local bi-partism based on coalition parties, and continued fluidity, including within the blocs themselves.

Portland’s urban politics may prove unstable and feature shifting alliances among these groups in the run-up to subsequent elections.

Read more…